 Climate change and development challenges in Asia
IIED/NEF - Hannah Reid (IIED) and Andrew Simms (nef)
The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia,
where over 60% of the world’s population, around 4 billion people, live.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said Asia is very
likely to warm during this century and suffer less predictable and more
extreme patterns of rainfall, including droughts and more extreme
inundations. Tropical cyclones are projected to increase in magnitude,
while monsoons, around which farming systems are designed, are
expected to become more temperamental in their strength and time of
onset. Rising sea levels due to thermal expansion of ocean water and
melting glaciers and polar ice caps mean coastal communities in the
Pacific Islands have already fallen victim. Natural climatic variability is
hugely significant to Asia, in particular the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and the Asian Monsoon phenomena. Both are natural climate
regimes but models predict increases in the strength and magnitude of
the ENSO phenomenon.
The point is now to act. Three overarching challenges include:
- How to stop and reverse further global warming. Global greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions must fall so average temperatures do not rise over
2°C from pre-industrial levels. The likelihood of major and irreversible
climate change becomes far greater above this level, but increases well
below 2°C will still doom many of the Pacific island nations. Industrialised countries must take the lead in reducing these emissions.
- How to live with the degree of global warming that cannot be
stopped. Poor countries need assistance to escape poverty through
massive investments in adaptation, renewable energy and sustainable
development.
- How to design a new model for human progress and development
that is climate proof and climate friendly and gives everyone a fair share
of the natural resources on which we depend.
China and India
India and China account for over one -third of the
world’s population. Infant mortality rates are as high as one in six and
malnutrition has not been effectively tackled, particularly in South Asia,
where half of 0 to 5 year olds are malnourished. A decrease in food
security is likely to exacerbate this problem. Recent widespread
droughts in Indian states such as Maharashtra have led to soaring
farmer suicides rates. Increasingly intense rainfall, particularly during
summer monsoon, could increase the risk of flooding. Already a large
number of floods have occurred in China in the last few years, mainly
over the middle and lower basins of the Yangtze (Changjiang), Yellow
River (Huang He), Huaihe and Haihe Rivers.
Farming and Food
Asia is home to 87% of the world’s known 400
million small farms. China accounts for almost half, followed by India
with 23%. To cope with a changing environment Asian small-scale
agriculture will need dramatically increased support and locally adapted
crop diversification that boosts biodiversity. In Bangladesh, farming
employs seven out of ten people in the labour force, but temperature
and rainfall changes have already affected crop production and the area
of arable land has decreased. In a region with rising population, if the ability to grow food is weakened, the health and livelihoods of millions
of people will be at risk. Climate change is already having a negative
impact on China’s agricultural production. If no action is taken, China’s
productivity could fall by 5-10%. By the second half of this century, the
production of three staple crops – wheat, rice and corn – could fall by
up to 37%.
Energy
While the use of fossil fuels in Asia continues to spiral upwards,
per capita GHG emissions are still far below European and American
levels. At the same time, Asia is developing and installing a range of
clean, efficient renewable energy technologies. In 2004, Cyclone Heta
struck the Pacific island of Niue, the world’s smallest nation, and
destroyed 70% of its infrastructure. Niue has since signed an agreement
with Greenpeace to move to wind energy and become the first
country to meet all its energy requirements from renewable sources.
Health
Hurricanes, storms and heavy rainfall have direct life-threatening
impacts. Urban and coastal populations are particularly at risk from
storm surges, flooding and coastal erosion. Increased incidences of
disease also follow floods and access to safe drinking water is
compromised by drought or glacial melt. Global warming will cause a
wide range of diseases – vector-borne, waterborne and respiratory – to
become much more prevalent. In Bangladesh, incidences of malaria have
dramatically increased in the last 30 years, and waterborne diseases are
already responsible for 24% of all deaths. In 2004 there was a massive
health crisis as sewage mixed with floodwater flowing through Dhaka
putting 10 million people at high risk. The UN reported sludge gushing
from manholes, and the rise in diseases such as acute respiratory
infections, diarrhoea, dysentery, jaundice, typhoid and scabies.
Migration
Forced migration is the most extreme form of adaptation
with devastating impacts on health and an individual’s sense of identity,
culture and security. It can also lead to conflict between resident
communities and new arrivals. Internal relocation of populations due to
shoreline erosion and rising sea levels is taking place in Pacific nations
like Vanuatu, Kiribati and Tuvalu.The population of the Carteret Islands
– six islands off Bougainville – are facing relocation to the mainland in
2008. There is an urgent need for co-ordinated plans, from local to
international levels, for relocating threatened communities with
appropriate political, legal and financial resources.
Cities
With a rising proportion of Asia’s people living in urban areas,
city authorities need to assess both the existing and new climaterelated
vulnerabilities facing growing urban populations. But city
governments are often weak and under-resourced. Even when they
have progressive policies, they lack the capacity to ensure best practice
in design and service delivery. Mumbai, India’s financial hub, is especially
vulnerable to sea level rise, and this could mean gigantic financial losses
to India. Reducing GHG emissions in cities should be a priority. Projects
that promote low carbon development and protect water resources and
green areas are vital.
Gender vulnerability
When a cyclone and floods hit Bangladesh in
1991, the death rate for women was almost five times higher than for
men. Men could warn each other as they met in public spaces, but they
sporadically communicated information to their families. Many women
are not allowed to leave their homes without a male relative. They
waited, tragically, for their relatives to return and take them to safety. Moreover, as in many Asian countries, most women have never learned
to swim.
Responses to climate change focus on areas such as agriculture, water
and energy primarily managed by women. Although they are the
primary labourers, women are rarely the decision-makers. More control
over resources and decision-making and improved access to knowledge
would increase both women’s empowerment and the effectiveness of
community measures for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Water and Drought
Large parts of Asia are vulnerable to changes to
the glacial cycle in the Himalayas. Over the last decade, the retreat of
glaciers and the thawing of permafrost in the highlands in north Asia
have accelerated. Supplying seven of Asia’s great rivers – the Ganges,
Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang He – the
glaciers ensure water supply to billions of people. The impacts of glacial
retreat range from increased risk of flooding in Himalayan catchment
areas in the short term, to reduced river flow in the long term.
Locals in the Thal region of the Punjab in Pakistan, are facing longer
summers and shorter winters. Some people are rediscovering
traditional, more drought resistant livelihoods. Gram has been grown
here as a cash crop, but the four-month crop depends on sufficient and
timely rains, which are becoming increasingly uncertain and cultivation is
now seen locally as a gamble. No crop can match gram if the rains
come on time, because it grows without fertilisers or pesticides, but
when rains fail, everything is lost. From 1998 to 2002, Pakistan faced
one of the worst droughts in its history. As a result, many Thalis
reverted to traditional livelihood patterns working with the natural
vegetation, indigenous trees and livestock.
Coasts
Over half of the population of Asia and the Pacific live near the
coast. Asia is home to several ‘mega-deltas’ where governments are
faced with the choice between expensive, unpredictable engineering-led
solutions or using nature-based approaches such as ‘managed retreat.’
Damage to coral reefs is occurring throughout Asia and the Pacific, and
rising sea temperatures leading to bleaching of coral reefs might be one
stressor too many for many coral reef systems. This will affect local
resources, such as fisheries on which many poor communities depend,
and reduce their value as tourism destinations. Vietnam will encounter
some of the worst impacts due to rising sea levels. A one-metre rise
could incur annual losses of US$17 billion and lose more than 12% of
its most fertile land. The best agricultural land, together with 50% of the
population, is on the low-lying Red River and the Mekong Delta regions.
Over 17 million people could lose their homes, 14 million of whom live
in the Mekong Delta region.
Biodiversity
Deforestation and pollution of water resources have
already devastated much of Vietnam’s rich biodiversity. Another estimate
suggests a 90cm rise in sea levels could cause the loss of one-third of
all Vietnam’s reserves and over one-quarter of its known biodiversity.
Tropical rainforests contain species valued by indigenous people for
their properties, such as medicinal use. The forests also provide
livelihoods and a vast carbon sink. Much stronger measures would
protect them from unsustainable logging and destructive development,
including agricultural and biofuel expansion.
Natural disasters
Regions already vulnerable to natural hazards will have a weakened
capacity to adapt. Bangladesh has limited adaptation capacity, in part
because it faced at least 174 disasters between 1974 and 2003.
Now Asia faces observed and projected increases in the intensity and
frequency of extreme weather events such as the devastating South
Asian floods in 2007. More resources should be channelled into
reducing disaster risk, and stop-start approaches must give way to
longer-term support to address the underlying causes of food
insecurity.
This article is drawn from the fifth report from the UK Working Group
on Climate Change and Development: Up in Smoke? Asia and the
Pacific. This can be downloaded from
www.upinsmokecoalition.org |
