EurElectric

Recognising that the electricity industry must play a pro-active role in seeking economically feasible solutions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while ensuring energy security, EURELECTRIC launched the Role of Electricity project in September 2005, addressing how to achieve a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and 50% by 2050 versus 1990, in the 25-country European Union (EU-25). Analysis of the status quo and likely future technologies on both demand and supply side were fed into a scenario model. Results unveiled this year show it is feasible, with the right policies, to achieve at reeasonable economic cost substantial GHG cuts and reduce oil and gas import dependency.

Boosting demand-side efficiency

Exploring the likely evolution of electricity demand in various sectors, we found significant potential for improving energy efficiency, including more efficient lighting, reductions in stand-by power, efficient motor systems and expansion of suburban rail and highspeed trains. However, two areas were identified where the potential for energyefficiency improvement can be coupled to great effect with substitution of imported hydrocarbons. The first is the use of heat pumps in spatial heating and cooling, particularly ground source heat pumps. By extracting ambient heat from the external environment, heat pumps typically produce four times more heat than kWh of electrical input, which will considerably reduce carbon emissions related to oil and gas-fired heating.

The second is Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. PHEVs have a double advantage over the classic internal combustion engine. The combination of an electric motor with an internal combustion engine (ICE) improves fuel efficiency, while the plug-in option allows a full electric drive and, unlike a fully-electric vehicle, a PHEV has unlimited autonomy. Consequently, PHEVs have the ability to substantially reduce CO2 emissions, improve energy efficiency in road transport, and reduce oil dependency.

Power supply: towards a low-CO2 mix

Today the EU employs a balanced mix of power generation technologies, and the current share of renewable energy sources (RES) and nuclear power ensures that 45% of all electricity generated in the EU-25 is CO2-free. Meanwhile the likely commercial availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology some time after 2020 will enable continued use of fossil fuels for large-scale power generation, with low CO2 emissions. Analysis shows that under the right policy framework, the transition to a low-carbon generation mix with high energy security is technically and economically feasible.

Scenarios: business-as-usual unsustainable, all-options model performs best

Findings were fed into a database to investigate the quantitative impact of various demand-side and supply-side policies and technologies, using the PRIMES energy system model for detailed projections to 2030 and the Prometheus model for broader projections to 2050. Working against a Baseline scenario, alternative scenarios explored the impact of reductions in GHG emissions of 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2050.

The baseline scenario includes ongoing energy efficiency and RES-support policies but does not expand them, foresee any change in current constraints on development of nuclear energy or envisage the emergence of CCS technology. Results show this scenario is unsustainable, both in terms of GHG emissions and gas/oil import dependency.

Another scenario centres on Efficiency and RES, while the Supply scenario is based on the hypothesis of a nuclear renaissance and commercial availability of CCS technology. The fourth scenario, entitled Role of Electricity, uses all options - efficiency, RES, nuclear energy and CCS. It exploits synergies between a low-carbon electricity supply system and efficient electro-technologies.

Results show Role of Electricity, with its balanced, synergy-seeking approach, convincingly performing best, reaching the GHG target without additional total energy costs compared to the baseline scenario. Oil/gas import dependency remains almost stable in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2005 whereas all other scenarios see a significant rise in dependency. The Role of Electricity scenario also delivers a stable carbon value – with an average of €35/t CO2 – whereas other scenarios peak at €120/t CO2. This has great significance not only in economic terms, but also for global relevance and worldwide acceptance of EU climate change policy.

The Role of Electricity project demonstrates the potential to reduce energy sector carbon emissions through active use of a wide portfolio of options. In utilising all available options, it limits abatement costs and avoids deterioration of energy supply security. While basically orientated to EU policymaking, the project carries a relevant global message, indidcating the policy measures required to achieve carbon emission reductions at lowest cost.

W: www.eurelectric.org